Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Economic Report : Gold and Indian Economy




 The Indian economy is the seventh largest economy in the world by nominal GDP ($2.582 trillion Nominal, October 2015) and the third largest by PPP ($8.427 trillion PPP, October 2015).
India is running a trade deficit. India imports more than what it exports. India is the largest consumer of gold in the world. India accounts for more than 30% of the global gold market. The amount of production of gold in India is minimal and the need is met by imports. Gold constitutes 12.50% of the total imports of India. India imports 26.10% of total world production of gold.




Reason behind the consumption of Gold
The reason behind this large consumption is that people see it as a safe avenue for investment and it also brings prestige and status with it. People also buy gold because of lack of other safe investment avenues and also lack of education.
Sometimes gold is also used for purpose of hedging. The foremost reason given for the rising price of gold is inflation that runs rampant amongst the world’s currencies. While gold is not the cause of inflation, gold as a commodity responds to market fluctuations and interest rate changes. Gold is traded in dollar. When there is more inflation and when the dollar gets stronger gold becomes costlier for people to buy so its demand decreases and when the dollar gets weaker the demand of gold increases. These changes in demand cause fluctuation in the price of gold. Gold is also affected by interest rates offered by banks. If interest rate offered by banks on savings is low then people will invest in gold therefore the price of gold will increase and if the interest rates offered by the banks on savings are high then people will invest more in currencies so the price of gold will decrease.


Problems with Import of gold in Indian economy
The major problem is that the trade of gold does not add value to the economy. Gold is brought in India in raw form and then jewellery is made of it and then people buy it in form of jewellery. Even from the investment perspective, majority of the Indians still prefer the traditional way of holding it in the physical form. The statistics says that 75% of this gold still is used in jewellery. This jewellery is stored in bank lockers and it is not traded for money so it is not contributing in the economy.
These imports are paid in dollars. India is running a trade deficit. So more and more import of gold will aggravate the CAD and will impact country’s FOREX reserves.

The steps taken by the Government
·         The Reserve Bank of India has implemented the 80:20 rule for jewellers. That means jewellers have to use 80 % gold for domestic demand while 20% for value added export.
·         The government also banned banks from selling gold coins to control the worsening CAD.
·         The government has also raised import duty to 10%.
·         Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the NDA government has decided to monetise this gold so it can make a contribution to the economy. For this purpose the government has launched gold monetisation scheme.

The Gold monetisation scheme
The government has come up with three schemes. The schemes are Gold Monetization Scheme, Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme, and India Gold Coins. 
The objectives for these schemes are as below.
·         To mobilize the gold held by households and institutions in the country.
·         To provide a fillip to the gems and jewellery sector in the country by making gold available as raw material on loan from the banks.
·         To be able to reduce reliance on import of gold over time to meet the domestic demand.
Here the government is starting the scheme from a few big cities because the scheme requires a vast infrastructure. To deposit the gold first of all the purity of gold will be checked by government authorized centres. When a customer brings in gold to the counter of specified agency or bank, the purity of gold is determined and exact quantity of gold is credited in the metal account. Customers may be asked to complete KYC (know-your-customer) process. The deposited gold will be lent by banks to jewellers at an interest rate little higher than the interest paid to customer.
To encourage people to use this scheme the minimum quantity required is kept at 30 grams.
After the purity test the depositor can have a gold savings account.
One will get interest on the deposited gold after 30 to 60 days. The rate will be decided by the banks. Suppose the rate is 1% and you deposit 100 gram gold than after 60 days you will get 101 grams of gold.
The customer will have the option of redemption either in cash or in gold.
The tenure of deposit will be minimum of 1 year.
Here the customers will also get exemption from capital gain tax, wealth tax and income tax.
The deposited gold will be held by refiners in their warehouses unless the banks decide to keep it with themselves.
The refiners will be paid a fee by the banks to hold this gold.
The benefits to the banks are as below:
·        To incentivize banks, it is proposed that they may be permitted to deposit the mobilized gold as part of their CRR/SLR requirements with RBI. This aspect is still under examination.
·        Banks may sell the gold to generate foreign currency.
·        Banks in India are not allowed to sell gold coins to check the CAD but here in this scheme we get the gold from public and it is not imported so the banks are allowed to convert this gold into coins and sale to their customers.
·        Banks to buy and sell on domestic commodity exchanges, where mobilized gold can be delivered.
·        This gold can be lent to jewellers so they don’t have to import gold so it will reduce our imports.
As this gold will be lent to jewellers, the imports of gold will be reduced and the CAD will be improved. The banks will also get interest on this gold loan to jewellers.

Conclusion
India is the world’s largest importer of gold. The imports of gold worsen the CAD of India. Also this import of gold does not add value to Indian economy. In response to that, the government announced the gold monetization scheme on 15 September to mobilize gold held by households and institutions and facilitate its use for productive purposes and, in the long run, to reduce India’s reliance on the import of gold. Holdings of gold in the country are estimated at 20,000 tonnes. Here the customer can open up their gold savings account. One can store his/her gold for a period and will get interest on it. The customer will also get tax benefits if he/she invests in this scheme. This should lead to a reduction into imports of gold improving the CAD of the country.

References

About the Author
This report has been prepared by Kushal Shah. He is pursuing MBA from Institute of Management, Nirma University located in Ahmedabad, India.

Disclaimer

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidelines only.


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