Monday, February 09, 2015

Analyst Report: NTPC Limited (Estimated Price: Rs. 160)

INTRODUCTION
India’s largest power company, NTPC was set up in 1975 to accelerate power development in India. NTPC is emerging as a diversified power major with presence in the entire value chain of the power generation business. Apart from power generation, which is the mainstay of the company, NTPC has already ventured into consultancy, power trading, ash utilisation and coal mining.
The total installed capacity of the company is 43,143 MW (including JVs) with 17 coal based and 7 gas based stations, 7 joint ventures stations are coal based and 8 renewable energy projects. As per new corporate plan, NTPC envisages to have an installed capacity of 128 GW by the year 2032 with a well-diversified fuel mix comprising 56% coal, 16% gas, 11% nuclear energy, 9% renewable energy and 8% hydro power based capacity. By then, non-fossil fuel based generation capacity shall make up nearly 28% of NTPC’s portfolio.
NTPC has been operating its plants at high efficiency levels. Although the company has 17.73% of the total national capacity, it contributes 25.91% of total power generation due to its focus on high efficiency.
NTPC became a listed company in November 2004 with the Government holding 89.5% of the equity share capital. At present GOI's holding in NTPC is 75%. The rest is held by Institutional Investors and Public.



BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
NTPC has adopted a multi-pronged strategy such as Greenfield Projects, Brownfield Projects, Joint Venture and Acquisition route. Apart from this, NTPC has also adopted the Diversification Strategy in related business areas, such as, Coal Mining, Power Trading & Manufacturing to ensure robust growth of the company.


JVs
Capacity Addition
Name
Promoters
Objective
NTPC-SAIL POWER COMPANY (PVT) LTD (NSPCL)
NTPC: 50%
SAIL: 50%
To own and operate captive power plants for SAIL’s steel manufacturing facilities located at Durgapur, Rourkela and Bhilai. To undertake expansion of Bhilai plants.
NTPC TAMILNADU ENERGY COMPANY LIMITED
NTPC: 50%
TNEB : 50%
To set up a 1500 MW coal based power station at vallur, Ennore in Tamil Nadu utilising the existing infrastructure facility at Ennore and supply power mainly to Tamil Nadu and the states of Kerala, Karnataka and Pondicherry. 
ARAVALI POWER COMPANY PRIVATE LTD
NTPC-50%, IPGCL-25%, HPGCL-25%
To set up a coal-based power station of 1500MW capacity in Distt. Jhajjar, Haryana, in joint venture with IPGCL and HPGCL to supply power to Delhi and Haryana.
RATNAGIRI GAS & POWER PVT. LIMITED
NTPC: 30.17%
GAIL: 30.17%
IFIs: 21.77% (ICICI: 10.65%, SBI: 7.14%, CANARA BANK: 1.87%)
MSEB HOLDING CO. LTD.: 17.89%
To own and operate the assets of the erstwhile Dhabol Power Company ( 1967 MW) and 5 MMTPA LNG Re-gasification Terminal 
NABINAGAR POWER GENERATING CO. PVT. LTD.
NTPC: 50%
BSEB: 50%
To set up 3x660 MW Thermal Power Plant at New Nabinagar, Bihar and operation & maintenance thereof 




Services
Name
Promoters
Objective
NTPC -ALSTOM POWER SERVICES PVT. LTD. (NASL)
NTPC: 50%
ALSTOM POWER GENERATION: 50%
Undertake Renovation & Modernisation of power stations in India and other SAARC countries
UTILITY POWER TECH LTD
NTPC: 50%
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE LTD : 50%
To undertake project construction, erection and supervision in power sector and other sectors in India and abroad


Power Trading & Power Exchange
Name
Promoters
Objective
NATIONAL POWER EXCHANGE LTD.(NPEX)
NTPC: 16.67%
NHPC :16.67%
PFC: 16.66%
TCS: 19.04%
BSE: 16.66 %
IFCI: 5.72 %
MEENAKSHI: 4.77 %
DPSC: 3.81 %
To facilitate nation - wide trading of all forms of contract for buying and selling of all forms of electrical energy for clearing and settlement of trade in a transparent, fair and open manner.

Coal Mining
Name
Promoters
Objective
NTPC – SCCL GLOBAL VENTURES PRIVATE LTD
NTPC: 50%
SCCL: 50%
To jointly undertake Development and O & M of Coal Blocks(s) and Integrated Coal based Power Projects in India and overseas.
INTERNATIONAL COAL VENTURES PVT. LIMITED (ICVL)
NTPC: 14.28%
NMDC: 14.28%
RINL: 14.28%
CIL: 28.58%
SAIL: 28.58%
For procurement of metallurgical coking coal and thermal coal from overseas & acquisition of coal assets abroad

Manufacturing & Supply of Equipment
Name
Promoters
Objective
NTPC-BHEL POWER PROJECTS PVT.LTD
NTPC: 50%
BHEL: 50%
To explore, secure and execute EPC contracts for Power plants and other Infrastructure projects in India and abroad.
To engage in manufacturing and supply of equipment for power plants and other infrastructure projects in India and abroad.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY SERVICES LTD. (EESL)
NTPC: 25%
PFC: 25%
POWERGRID: 25%
REC: 25%
To carry out and promote the business of Energy Efficiency, Energy Conservation and Climate Change including manufacture and supply of energy efficiency services and products.
CIL-NTPC URJA PRIVATE LIMITED (CNUPL)
NTPC: 50%
CIL: 50%
Development of Brahmini & Chichro Patsimal coal mine blocks for meeting coal requirement of Farakka and Kahalgaon expansion projects of NTPC.
ANUSHAKTI VIDHYUT NIGAM LIMITED (ASHVINI)
NPCIL: 51%
NTPC: 49%
Setting up of nuclear power projects

ACQUISITIONS
Power Station taken over
Year
Original Owner
2x210 MW FEROZE GANDHI UNCHAHAR THERMAL POWER STATION
1991
UP Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Limited
4x60 MW +2x110 MW TALCHER THERMAL POWER STATION
1995
Orissa State Electricity Board
4x110 MW TANDA THERMAL POWER STATION
2000
UP Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Limited
705MW BADARPUR THERMAL POWER STATION
2006
Central Electricity Authority

DIVERSIFICATION
To broad-base the business and also to ensure growth, diversification in the areas related to NTPC's core business of power generation such as Hydro power, Distribution, Trading, Coal mining, LNG etc. have been identified as priority areas.
The policy changes in coal sector provides an opportunity to NTPC to enter captive coal mining business. Production is expected by 2015 in Pakri Barwadih in the state of Jharkhand. Ten blocks have been allotted to NTPC.
In addition to development of its own domestic coal mines NTPC is exploring various other options including acquisition of stake in coal mines abroad for sourcing of thermal coal for addressing fuel security concerns.

OPERATIONS
INSTALLED
Present installed capacity of NTPC is 43,143 MW (including 5,974 MW through JVs) comprising of 38 NTPC Stations (17 Coal based stations, 7 combined cycle gas/liquid fuel based stations), 7 Joint Venture stations (6 coal based and one gas based) and 8 renewable energy projects.


No. of plants
Capacity (MW)
NTPC Owned
Coal
17
33015
Gas/ Liquid fuel
7
4017
Renewable Energy Projects
8
110
Total
32
37142
Owned byJVs
Coal
6
4034
Gas
1
1967
Total
7
6001
Total
39
43143






UNDER IMPLEMENTATION
Hydro Based
State
Approved Caspacity
Koldam (HEPP)
Himachal Pradesh
800
Tapovan Vishnugad (HEPP)
Uttarakhand
520
Singrauli CW Discharge
Uttar Pradesh
8
Lata Tapovan
Uttarakhand
171
Total
1499



STRENGTHS AND OPPORTUNITIES
It is very efficient and a well-established company.
It is a Maharatna company, which means having high flexibility and freedom in decision making.
There is a high potential of growth, as India is an emerging economy and its energy demand is increasing continuously.
It is a public company and operates at a very large scale. And the major business is power generation and in India where it operates is the place where demand is higher than the supply so there is no direct competition.

WEAKNESS AND THREATS
Its dependency on availability of coal is the biggest threat.
It has the threat of bureaucracy as being a PSU

  
FINANCIALS
Statement of Profit and Loss
The Company has been experiencing a sales growth of 6% and 9.6% from the previous 2 years (2013 and 2014). Involved in Power generation, the fuel expenses (62% to 67% of the total Revenues) form majority of the expenses in operations. The Employee benefit expenses vary from 5% to 5.3% in the past 5 years (% of Revenues). The General and Administration expenses form 4 to 9% of the Revenues. Both the Depreciation and finance cost has been around 4% respectively. The Company has been earning an After tax margin of 20% (25% in the year 2013). NTPC has succeeded in maintaining PAT of 15% to 20% over the past 5 years.
(in crores)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Particulars





Revenue





Revenue from Operations
46568.48
55340.66
62480.88
66263.35
72644.02
Less: Electricity Duty
245.89
278.01
428.65
526.31
625.09
Revenue from Operations (Net)
46322.59
55062.65
62052.23
65737.04
72018.93
Other income
2924.06
2344.65
2789.65
3118.77
4913.61
Total Revenue
49246.65
57407.30
64841.88
68855.81
74707.82






Expenses





Fuel
29462.74
35373.78
41635.46
41018.25
45829.71
Employee benefit expense
2412.36
2789.71
3101.71
3415.96
3867.96
General, Administration and other expenses
2094.03
4926.28
3588.79
4235.68
4543.85
Prior Period items (Net)
-77.83
-1638.72
-313.58
-29.72
12.84
Total Expenses
33891.30
41451.05
48012.38
48640.17
54254.36
EBITDA
15355.35
15956.25
16829.50
20215.64
20453.46
Depriciaton and Amortization
2650.06
2485.69
2791.70
3396.76
4142.19
EBIT
12705.29
13470.56
14037.80
16818.88
16311.27
Profit before tax
10885.46
12049.60
12326.16
16578.63
13904.68
Total tax expense
2157.26
2947.01
3102.43
3959.24
2929.91
Profit for the year
8728.20
9102.59
9223.73
12619.39
10974.77
  
  
  
Balance Sheet
There has been no change in the share capital of the company. The company has the Days Payables outstanding of 53 days (46 days in 2013) in comparison with inventory days of 43 Days (36 days in 2013) and Days Sales outstanding of 25 Days (28 days in 2013). There has been a gradual decline in the current ratio from 2.57 (2011) {2.17 (2012), 1.81 (2013)} to 1.58 (2014). The intangibles form a negligible part of the Total assets of the Company. The Company has been consistently reducing its current, liquid and cash ratio, thereby holding lesser amounts of cash in current assets.

2011
2012
2013
2014
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES









Shareholders' funds




Share capital
8245.46
8245.46
8245.46
8245.46
Reserves and surplus
59646.79
65045.71
72142.05
77569.86

67892.25
73291.17
80387.51
85815.32
Deferred revenue
854.48
1430.06
1244.05
1609.88
Non current liabilities
42951.11
48877.93
56878.72
66849.18





Current liabilities




Trade payables
4088.01
4460.65
5132.39
6633.34
Other current liabilities (Borrowings)

4370.67
4892.42
4764.42
Other current liabilities
7762.50
9537.24
10469.25
6579.44
Short term provisions
2190.53
3233.69
7004.54
7302.60

14041.04
17231.58
22606.18
25279.80
TOTAL
125738.88
140830.74
161116.46
179554.18
Debt-Equity ratio
0.59
0.69
0.72
0.78
ASSETS




Non current assets




Fixed Assets




Net Tangible assets
39029.07
45044.47
62687.42
71865.86
Net Intangible assets
206.89
211.89
248.68
244.97
Non current investments
10532.84
9583.92
9137.64
8120.90
Long term loans and advances
3901.96
5394.35
9633.41
12776.22
Other non-current assets
459.15
1371.88
1491.19
1786.77

89625.24
103434.37
120307.76
139683.39
Current assets




Current investments
1812.00
1622.46
1622.46
1636.96
Inventories
3639.12
3702.85
4057.19
5373.35
Trade receivables
1434.96
5832.51
5365.00
5220.08
Cash and bank balances
16185.26
16141.83
16867.70
15311.37
Short term loans and advances
3777.86
1543.32
1745.57
3117.08
Other current assets
9264.44
8553.40
11150.78
9211.95

36113.64
37396.37
40808.70
39870.79
TOTAL
125738.88
140830.74
161116.46
179554.18
Summarized Balance Sheet



Valuation
Discounted cash flow method was used for calculating the value of the equity share. The calculated intrinsic value of the share comes out to be Rs. 159.72. The Current Market price is Rs. 140.

Projected Profit and Loss Statement

Growth Rate






(in crores)
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Terminal
Particulars






Revenue






Revenue from Operations
77002.66
83162.87
93142.42
102456.66
112702.33
118337.44
Less: Electricity Duty
662.60
715.60
801.48
881.62
969.79
1018.27
Revenue from Operations (Net)
76340.07
82447.27
92340.94
101575.04
111732.54
117319.17
Other income
2688.89
2688.89
2688.89
2688.89
2688.89
2688.89
Interest from loans and investments
2086.47
2086.47
2086.47
2086.47
2086.47
2086.47
Dividend from investments
138.25
138.25
138.25
138.25
138.25
138.25







Total Revenue
79028.96
85136.16
95029.83
104263.93
114421.43
120008.06







Expenses






Fuel
48579.49
52465.85
58761.75
64637.93
71101.72
74656.81
Employee benefit expense
4100.04
4428.04
4959.41
5455.35
6000.88
6300.92
General, Administration and other expenses
4816.48
5201.80
5826.02
6408.62
7049.48
7401.95
Prior Period items (Net)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Expenses
57496.01
62095.69
69547.18
76501.89
84152.08
88359.69
EBITDA
21532.94
23040.47
25482.66
27762.04
30269.35
31648.37
Depriciaton and Amortization
4654.10
5119.50
5631.45
6194.59
6814.04
7495.44
EBIT
16878.85
17920.97
19851.21
21567.45
23455.31
24152.93
Profit before tax
14374.58
15312.65
17126.51
18715.57
20464.37
21019.16
Total tax expense
3028.92
3226.59
3608.79
3943.63
4312.13
4429.03
Profit for the year
11345.66
12086.06
13517.72
14771.94
16152.24
16590.13

Projected Balance Sheet
Growth Rate







2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Terminal
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES













Shareholders' funds






Share capital
8245.46
8245.46
8245.46
8245.46
8245.46
8245.46
Reserves and surplus
81283.38
85239.24
89663.68
94498.65
99785.40
105215.47

89528.84
93484.70
97909.14
102744.11
108030.86
113460.93
Deferred revenue
1609.88
1609.88
1609.88
1609.88
1609.88
1609.88
Non current liabilities






Long term borrowings
65106.26
67983.00
71200.50
74716.53
78561.11
82509.91
Deferred tax liabilities (net)
1051.61
1051.61
1051.61
1051.61
1051.61
1051.61
Other long term liabilites
2512.46
2512.46
2512.46
2512.46
2512.46
2512.46
Long term provisions
879.36
879.36
879.36
879.36
879.36
879.36

69549.69
72426.43
75643.93
79159.96
83004.54
86953.34
Current liabilities






Trade payables
7031.34
7593.85
8505.11
9355.62
10291.18
10805.74
Other current liabilities (Borrowings)
4970.59
5190.22
5435.86
5704.30
5997.81
6299.29
Other current liabilities
6579.44
6579.44
6579.44
6579.44
6579.44
6579.44
Short term provisions
7302.60
7302.60
7302.60
7302.60
7302.60
7302.60

25883.97
26666.11
27823.01
28941.96
30171.04
30987.07
TOTAL
186572.38
194187.11
202985.97
212455.91
222816.32
233011.23







ASSETS






Non current assets






Fixed Assets






Gross Block Tangible
128271.65
141098.81
155208.70
170729.56
187802.52
206582.77
Depreciation
4654.05
5119.45
5631.40
6194.54
6813.99
7495.39
Accumlated Depreciation
49398.78
54518.23
60149.63
66344.18
73158.17
80653.56
Net Tangible assets
78872.87
86580.58
95059.06
104385.39
114644.35
125929.21
Gross Intangibles
381.47
381.47
381.47
381.47
381.47
381.47
Depreciation
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
Accumlated Depreciation
136.55
136.59
136.64
136.68
136.73
136.77
Net Intangible assets
244.92
244.88
244.83
244.79
244.74
244.70
Capital work-in-progress
44886.74
44886.74
44886.74
44886.74
44886.74
44886.74
Intangible assets under development
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Net Block
124004.53
131712.20
140190.63
149516.92
159775.84
171060.65
Non current investments
8120.90
8120.90
8120.90
8120.90
8120.90
8120.90
Long term loans and advances
12776.22
12776.22
12776.22
12776.22
12776.22
12776.22
Other non-current assets
1786.77
1786.77
1786.77
1786.77
1786.77
1786.77

146688.42
154396.09
162874.52
172200.81
182459.73
193744.54
Current assets






Current investments
1636.96
1636.96
1636.96
1636.96
1636.96
1636.96
Inventories
5695.75
6151.41
6889.58
7578.54
8336.39
8753.21
Trade receivables
5522.01
5948.74
6640.05
7285.26
7995.00
8385.36
Cash and bank balances
14700.20
13724.88
12615.83
11425.31
10059.21
8162.13
Short term loans and advances
3117.08
3117.08
3117.08
3117.08
3117.08
3117.08
Other current assets
9211.95
9211.95
9211.95
9211.95
9211.95
9211.95

39883.95
39791.02
40111.44
40255.10
40356.59
39266.69
TOTAL
186572.38
194187.11
202985.97
212455.91
222816.32
233011.23


About the Authors
This report has been prepared by Sreyas Thacker and Atul Mantri. Both of them are pursuing MBA at Institute of Management, Nirma University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India.


Disclaimer
This document is solely for personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only.

No comments:

Post a Comment